Predicted grades
A predicted grade is the teacher’s estimation of the grade the candidate is expected to achieve in the subject. A predicted grade should be based on:
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all the evidence of the candidate’s work
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the teacher’s knowledge of IB standards.
Predicted grades are required for all subjects, including TOK and the EE.
To guide schools in their predictions, the IB will provide a customized distribution of predicted grades for each subject, based on previous actual performance at the school. Using this distribution, it is important that each prediction is made as accurately as possible, without under-predicting or over-predicting the grade. The IB recognizes that it is possible that a school’s context may change significantly or that schools may have exceptional students. For these situations, the IB will permit a distribution to be exceeded.
For schools or candidates that are unable to take examinations due to COVID-19, where a distribution is exceeded or if the internal assessment outcomes show that the cohort is weaker than previous cohorts and predicted grades are not lowered, the IB will implement an additional quality assurance measure. Supporting evidence of student performance may be requested by the IB.
For schools and candidates that take examinations, the IB will not usually request evidence if the predicted grade distribution is exceeded. However, the IB reserves the right to request supporting evidence of predicted grades in exceptional circumstances.
Predicted grades are used for grade award meetings when considering a subject’s grade distributions and the performance of individual candidates. A check on the appropriateness of results is made by comparing awarded grades with predicted grades. If there are significant discrepancies, further reviews may be conducted. Predicted grades are not used in calculations for candidates affected by adverse circumstances, including candidates with incomplete assessment for one or more components for whom calculations are made using global or school averages.
Teachers predicting grades should use the following scales.
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Grades are awarded to candidates in each subject on a scale of 1 to 7, with 7 being the highest grade.
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For TOK and the EE, the grades are on a scale of A to E, with A being the highest grade.
Whether predicted grades should be released to candidates is left to the discretion of the school.
Source: Diploma Programme Assessment Procedures 2024 Last update: 13/11/2023